A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
